亚太区经济展望——2017年第一季.Asia Pacific Economic Forecast.pptx

Asia Pacific Economic Forecast1st Quarter 2017Asia Pacific Economic OutlookCONTENTS3 AustraliaShifting the dial toward the long term7 IndonesiaCentral bank on the move13 SingaporePlans for a future economy face challenges21 South KoreaBusiness investment faces roadblocksAbout the authorsAdditional resources1Asia Pacific Economic OutlookThough Australia experienced strong growth in the first half of 2016, the medium-term growth outlook is worrying because of impending domestic and external risks. The government might have to concen- trate on longer-term plans to ensure sustainable growth.AustraliaShifting the dial toward the long termBy Dr. Rumki MajumdarAUSTRALIA witnessed strong economicDomestic risks edging upNonmining sectors lack momentum: Mining activities have continued to fall, with investment in the sector declining from its peak of 9.0 per- cent of GDP in 2012–13 to 4.5 percent in 2015–16.2 According to a Deloitte Access Economics report, the steepest fall in this sector’s business invest- ment is likely to happen over the next 18 months, which implies that Australia has to look elsewhere for growth.3However, despite a strong pick-up, investment in the nonmining sector has only partly offset the lacunae created by falling mining invest- ment. Recent monthly data, such as the industrial production index and performance managementgrowth (3.1 percent year over year) in thefirst half of 2016 owing to the recovery incommodity prices; increased government spending on infrastructure; reduced cost of credit, thanks to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), for easy mon- etary policy; and China’s renewed stimulus to prop up construction activities.1 While all these factors have played out favorably so far, and might even continue to support growth in the short term, the medium-term growth outlook is worrying because of impending domestic and external risks. In other words, Australia has to focus