中国与东盟木质林产品贸易影响因素与贸易潜力的分析——基于引力模型.docVIP

中国与东盟木质林产品贸易影响因素与贸易潜力的分析——基于引力模型 沈自峥 吴国春 曹玉昆 刘意 东北林业大学经济管理学院 X 关注成功！ 加关注后您将方便地在 我的关注中得到本文献的被引频次变化的通知！ 新浪微博 腾讯微博 人人网 开心网 豆瓣网 网易微博 摘????要： 以2006—2015年联合国贸易数据库整理的数据为基础, 结合中国与东盟十国的木质林产品贸易状况, 利用扩展后的引力模型, 分析木质林产品贸易的影响因素, 测算其贸易潜力。结果表明:中国与东盟木质林产品贸易的进出口总额大体上呈现逐年递增的态势;国内生产总值、人口、森林资源禀赋差异、亚太经济合作组织等因素对中国与东盟木质林产品贸易具有正相关作用, 而距离、全球金融危机等因素具有负相关作用;中国和东盟各个国家的木质林产品贸易属于“贸易开拓型”, 双边木质林产品还有可开发的贸易潜力空间;双边可以发挥有利因素, 促进双边木质林产品贸易向更远发展。 关键词： 中国—东盟; 木质林产品; 引力模型; 影响因素; 贸易潜力; 作者简介：沈自峥 (1987-) , 女, 河南平顶山人, 硕士研究生, 从事林产品国际贸易研究, (电话) (E-mail) 812987444@。 作者简介：吴国春 (1955-) , 男, 黑龙江齐齐哈尔人, 教授, 博士生导师, 从事林产品国际贸易研究, (电话) 0451 (E-mail) WUGC@。 收稿日期：2017-07-05 基金：国家社会科学基金资助项目 (13BJY032) The Analysis of Influencing Factors and Potential on Wooden Forest Products Trade between China and Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN) :Research Based on Gravity Model SHEN Zizheng WU Guochun CAO Yukun LIU Yi College of Economics and Management, Northeast Forestry University; Abstract： ⑴Background——ASEAN is Chinas important partner in trade of wooden forest products.There are 3countries from ASEAN accounting for the top five position of Chinas importing countries in wooden forest productstrade.Association of Southeast Asian Nations is called for short as ASEAN, which has a close connection with China geographically and has a more intimate relation with China in trade because of its status as important countries along the Belt and Road.In 2010, China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) was established with years of effort by both China and ASEAN, which made bilateral trade close and greatly potential.In 2015, the volume of import and export of Chinas wooden forest products towards ASEAN reached 11.841 billion dollars, accounting for 11.77%of the total foreign trade volume of Chinas wooden forest products.Studying the trade of wooden forest products between China and ASEAN not only has significant guiding meaning to sustainable and sound development of bilateral trade of wooden forest p