气候系统模式（BCC_CSM1）对20世纪降水及其变率的模拟董敏吴统文.docVIP

气候系统模式（BCC_CSM1）对20世纪降水及其变率的模拟 董敏、吴统文、王在志、辛晓歌、张芳 国家气候中心气候模式室 摘 要 应用北京气候中心气候系统模式（BCC_CSM1.0），在给定温室气体、太阳常数、硫酸盐气溶胶、火山灰等外强迫数据的条件下，对19世纪末期到20世纪（1870-2005）twwu@cma.gov.cn 作者简介：董敏，男，1942年生，从事气候模式的研发及应用，热带气象和季风研究。 Email：dongm@cma.goc.cn 资助项目： 国家科技支撑项目“我国主要极端天气气候事件及重大气象灾害监测、检测和预测关键技术研究” A simulation study on the precipitation and its variation during the 20th century by using the BCC climate model (BCC_CSM1) Dong Min Wu Tongwen Wang zaizhi Xin Xiaoge and Zhang Fang Climate system modeling division, Beijing Climate Center The climate of the late 19th and 20th century(1870-2005) is simulated by using the Beijing Climate Center’s climate system model (BCC_CSM1) under specified external forcing of solar constant, greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols and volcanic ashes. The simulated precipitation and its variations are validated. The results show that the BCC model can pretty well simulate the basic climate state of global precipitation, the seasonal transition, the intraseasonal oscillation of tropical precipitation and the inter-annual variation. The simulated precipitation consists with the CMAP and CRU analysis data which is based on observations. The simulation also shows there is an increasing trend in global land precipitation and in the extreme precipitation events during the last one more century. Meanwhile, there are also some deficiencies in the precipitation simulation of the BBC climate model. They are the followings: Though the simulated precipitation is consistent with the observation in global scale, there are still some discrepancies between the simulated and observed precipitation in the geographical distribution and temporal evolution. The simulation ability of the model needs improvement in some aspects. The simulated seasonal transition of the main rain belt in east part of China is faster than the observation. There is more precipitation over northeast part of Tibet and nearby region in simulation than in observation. This s