大地震后应力转移与其余震关系之探讨-气象局.PDFVIP

力 理 良 利量 年 倫力 論 落力 力 落力力降 參數 便 力 Spatial heterogeneous slip dislocation models from seismic waveform inversions of several moderate to large earthquakes in the past decade in the Taiwan area are used to calculate stress transfer conditions associated with aftershock distributions. Toward the possibility of forecasting aftershock distributions from stress changes due to the mainshock, we considered homogeneous fault models on the basis of earthquake scaling law to produce rapid stress change calculations. Stress changes from homogeneous and heterogeneous fault models show similar patterns. They both show good correlation with aftershock distributions, even for the complex fault rupture of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake. Our results, thus, support the possibility of forecasting aftershock distributions using mainshock stress changes. Once the location, magnitude and focal mechanism of an earthquake become available, stress change calculations can be carried out to forecast aftershock distribution for earthquake hazard mitigation. 111 1. Introduction In view of this possibility, we investigate several moderate to large inland Taiwan earthquakes with regard to their aftershock distributions and corresponding Coulomb stress change due to the mainshock. Stress change was calculated using a dislocation model obtained through strong motion waveform inversions for a finite-fault model. An accurate stress change pattern relies on a detailed understanding of the spatial slip distribution. However, the high-resoluti