一带一路提升卡车出口商估值.pdfVIP

One Belt One Road Boosts the Valuations for Truck Exporters China heavy truck sales are expected to decrease 20% YoY in 2015 but to recover in 2016 and 2017. Sales of heavy trucks and medium trucks decreased the most, down 33.7% YoY and 32.3% YoY in 1Q15, respectively. New floor area under construction and purchase of new land decreased13.4% YoY and 32.4% YoY, respectively, in 1Q15, which reduced the demand for construction trucks. In addition, international trade remained weak, which depressed the demand for logistics trucks. However, we expect that the replacement of Yellow Plate trucks due to environmental concerns and the upgrade of technology, including emission standard and fuel efficiency, will support the heavy truck sales. In addition, we think the easing of property curbs and money policies to secure economic growth will support the recovery of heavy truck sales in 2H15. Medium to long term, the launch of the One Belt and One Road Strategy is expected to increase the export of construction machineries. Therefore, we expected heavy truck sales growth to decrease 20% YoY in 2015, but to recover 8% YoY and 6% YoY in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Investment Suggestion: Truck Exporter. HK listed truck makers are valued at weighted average of 10.1x 2015 PE and 1.2x 2015 PB, much lower than peers in A-share and global markets. The valuation of truck makers is lower than PV makers due to higher uncertainty and fluctuation of profit growth. We think the drop of truck sales is expected to narrow in 2H15 due to easing property curbs and monetary policies to secure China economic growth. In addition, One Belt and One Road Strategy is expected to increase machineries and truck exports which may increas