东南亚，中国，印度2014宏观经济报告.pdf

Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2014 BEYOND THE MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2014 Beyond the Middle-Income Trap Medium-term economic outlook: Prospects and assessments The economic outlook in Emerging Asia (Southeast Asia, China and India) remains robust over the medium term, anchored by the steady rise in domestic demand. Real GDP growth in Emerging Asian economies is projected to be moderating gradually but remains robust over the 2014-18 period, according to the results of the OECD Development Centre’s Medium-Term Projection Framework (MPF-2014) for this 2014 edition of the Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India. As a whole, the Emerging Asian economies are expected to grow by 6.9% per annum in 2014-18. It is a robust pace, albeit less than the 8.6% registered before the global financial crisis (2000-07). This slower rate of growth largely reflects the moderate rates of expansion in the two large Emerging Asian economies of China and India. In the Southeast Asian region, growth will remain robust in the medium term, growing at a pace which is comparable to the pre-global financial crisis. The real GDP growth rate in the Southeast Asian region is projected to average 5.4% per annum between 2014-18, against 5.5% in 2000-07 (Table 0.1). Table 0.1. Real GDP growth of Southeast Asia, China and India (annual percentage change) 2012 2018 2014-18 2000-07 ASEAN-6 countries Brunei Darussalam 1.0 2.4 2.3 - Indonesia 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.1 Ma