中国住宅用能需求：2030年情景分析，趋势及问题.pdf

The Chinese Residential Energy Demand: Scenarios to 2030, Evolutions and Issues 2030 ii CONTENTS WORKING TEAMS IN THE EC2 PROJECT:0 CONTENTS 0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION 2 1. KEY CONCEPTS IN CHINESE RESIDENTIAL BUILDING SECTOR 3 2. CLIMATIC ZONES AND ANALYZED AREAS 5 3. “EFB - ENERGY FOR BUILDINGS”6 4. MAIN DRIVERS 7 5. ENERGY DEMAND EVALUATION 9 6. ENERGY POLICIES, BARRIERS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 10 7. APPLICATION OF THE MODEL 14 9. CONCLUSIONS 19 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS20 REFERENCES 21 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The report provides an overview of Chinese existing energy policies and measures in order to promote energy efficiency use in residential buildings, identifies promoting factors and key barriers related to the implementation of energy policies, comes up with suggestions on possible ways to overcome these barriers as well as adopted measures for reducing carbon emissions. It also aims to analyse possible gains expected considering government plans and policies already in place and the applications of the proposed recommendations. A range of different scenarios is presented and discussed in order to understand how China’s residential sector energy demand may evolve in the next twenty years. For that purpose, it has been used an ad hoc model of China’s building energy use (the “EfB- Energy for Building” Model) that has been built in the framework of the activities of the Europe-China Clean Energy Center (EC2) at Tsinghua University in Beijing. By using the model it is possible to simulate the energy demand evolution of Chinese residential sector until 2030. The analysis suggests that there are possibilities for China to respect the regulatory cap of 32.000 PJ in 2020 only with the introduction of more aggressive policies and behavioural change. The residential