基于聚类分析的风电场短期功率预测方法研究.docVIP

基于聚类分析的风电场短期功率预测方法研究 Published Online June 2015 in Hans. //.hanspub.org/journal/se //dx.doi.org/10.12677/se.2015.53003 17 The Study of Short-Term Wind Power Generation Prediction Methods Based on Clustering Analysis in Wind Farm Cun Dong1, Shuang Gao2, Ying Hao2, Yang Gao3 1State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing 2Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 3Shenyang Institute of Engineering, Shenyang Liaoning Received: Jun. 2nd, 2015; accepted: Jun. 20th, 2015; published: Jun. 23rd, 2015 Copyright ?? 2015 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). //creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract In order to make full use of information contained from historical wind data, this paper proposed 8#004699a short-term power prediction method based on clustering analysis according to the daily similar- ity property of wind speed and wind power. By the preprocessing of the original sample data, when calculating the Euclidean distance among the characteristic parameters, the history data which are similar to the NWP characteristic parameter of the prediction day are used as the train- ing sample; the NWP information provided by the meteorological department is used as the cha- racteristic parameter of the prediction day. This Euclidean distance is used to be the basis of the similarity measure. Finally, this paper uses the similar samples after clustering to establish the short-term prediction model which is using the NWP data as the input parameter, using the actual wind power generation as the target data. Testing by the actual wind farms, the prediction preci- sion is improved obviously. Keywords Short-Term Wind Power Generation Prediction, Clustering Analysis, K-Means Clustering Method, Daily Similarity Property, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) 基于聚类分析的风电场短期功率预测方法研究 董 存1，高 爽2，郝 颖2，高 阳3 基于聚类分析的风电场短期功率预测方法研究 18 1国家电网公司，北京