中国汇率制度对越中双边贸易的影响分析-区域经济学专业论文.docx

UN IVERSITY CO D E:10246STU D EN T ID :10210680322CH IN A S EX CH AN G E RA TE PO LICY A N D ITS IM PA CTSO N TH E B ILA TERA L TRA D E BETW EEN V IETN A MA N D CH IN AM A TH E SISPresentedinPartialFulfillmentoftheRequirementfortheMasterDegreebytheGraduateSchoolofFudanUniversityByNguyen,ThiVietHaFudanUniversity2012ThesisAdvisor:Lu,QianJin Signature:ThesisCommittee: Approvedby:Professor:Professor:Professor:DefenseDate:April27,2012 M A Program inChineseEconomy指导小组成员名单陆前进副教授殷醒民教授范剑勇教授何立新副教授T ableofC ontents觀1A bstract2Introduction3I.Theoreticalfram ew orkand literaturereview41.1.Theoriesofexchangerateandexchangeratepolicy41.2.Literaturesofexchangeratepolicyanditsimpactsoninternationaltrade5II.ExchangerateissuesinVietnam andChina92.1.ExchangeratepolicyinVietnam andChina92.1.1.ExchangeratepolicyinVietnam92.1.2.ExchangeratepolicyinChina132.2.RmbagainstVndviayears192.3.CharacteristicsofexchangerateregimeinVietnam andChina22III.Im pactsonthebilateraltradebetweenVietnamandChina283.1.ImpactsonexportsandimportstoChina283.2.M odelM ethodology373.3.Implicationsforthemodels47IV.DiscussontheexchangeratepolicyinVietnam andChina incomingyears494.1.ExchangeratepolicyinVietnam andChinainthecoiningyears494.2.Challengesonthebilateraltrade flows51V.ConclusionsandPolicyimplications545.1.Conclusions545.2.Policyimplications55Appendix57R eferences60P ostscript63IVFigures,piesandtablesFigure1:ExchangerateUsd/Vndfrom 1994toJanuary201212Figure2:ChinadevaluatedtheyuanSharplyin199415Figure3:RmbagainstUsdfrom 2008-Feb.20 1218Figure4:PeriodsofExchangeratepolicyofChina19Figure5:Rmb/V ndviayears20Figure6:Rm b/VndinM arch20 1220Figure7:CompareexchangerateofsomecountriestoUsd22Figure8:InflationinVietnam,Philippines,China,ThailandandM alaysia23Figure9:Vietnam exportstoChina(milliondollar)29Figure10:Vietnam imports from China(milliondollar)32Figure11:Tradebalance betweenVietnam andChinaviayears(milliondollars)34Figure12:Exchangeratefrom 1994ti