CHAP09Introduction to Economic Fluctuations培训资料.pptVIP

This graph reproduces GDP and consumption growth using a larger scale. The scale accommodates the investment growth rate data. The point: investment is much more volatile than consumption or GDP in the short run. Source: See Figure 9-2, p.260 The unemployment rate rises during recessions and falls during expansions. The unemployment rate sometimes lags changes in GDP growth. For example, after the 1991 recession ended, unemployment continued to rise for about a year before falling. After the 2001 recession ended, unemployment did not begin to fall for a couple quarters. At the time I write this, people are looking for signs that the recession (which began December 2007) is ending. They shouldn’t look at the unemployment rate – it probably won’t start falling, and may continue rising, until a while after the recession ends. Source: See Figure 9-3, p.261. A replica of Figure 9.4, p.262. The boxed equation in the upper right is the Okun’s Law equation shown on the bottom of p.261. In this equation, “u” denotes the unemployment rate. I’ve abbreviated some of the names to fit more neatly on this slide. Pp. 263-64 provides a full list of complete names and a discussion of the role of each component in helping forecast economic activity. The index turns downward a few months to a year before each recession. It also turns upward just prior to the end of almost every recession. Notice that it has turned upward in the last few months before the data end (in June 2009). Is the current recession about to end? Perhaps by the time you teach this, it will be over. Source: Conference Board. Note: This is proprietary data that we purchased from the Conference Board. They allow us to publish this graph on the condition that we include the source on the slide. I have tried to make the citation unobtrusive. Theoretically, it could easily be removed from this slide, though we are required to leave it. But, it wouldn’t be hard to remove. T