近几年进出口贸易对中国经济的影响.docVIP

近几年进出口贸易对中国经济的影响 近几年进出口贸易对中国经济的影响 专业名称：数学与应用数学 班 级： 200301 学生姓名： 卢艳红 指导教师： 李子方 完成时间： 2007年5月 摘 要 随着经济全球化的不断发展，进出口贸易对一国经济增长有着极其重要的作用，特别是中国加入WTO后，进出口贸易在我国经济发展中的地位不断提高，进出口贸易越来越受到重视。我国近几年进出口贸易连续高额顺差，对进出口贸易与经济发展之间的关系的研究也越来越引发众多学者与专业人士的注意与重视。连年的顺差对于我国的经济来说究竟是喜还是忧呢？不断增长的对外贸易是真实的反映了我国经济的繁荣吗，我国经济实力的增强吗？这些问题都有待去考察与研究。 本文利用数学统计软件Eviwes与SPSS对数据自1989-2004年的进出口额与国内生产总值做了实证分析，建立了数学模型，对数据分析的结果作出了评价，并且也对进出口贸易的结构进行了分析，来说明进出口贸易对经济发展的影响，探讨了目前中国经济的增长“质”的问题，并就进出口贸易如何更好促进中国经济增长从不同的方面提出了建议，变出口导向型贸易政策为战略管理型贸易政策,即不要一味地追求贸易顺差,而应以促进经济健康发展为目标,实现国际收支基本平衡，以充分调动世界各地的经济优势资源为我国经济增长做贡献，使我国的经济能够迎接新的挑战与机遇。 关键词 进出口贸易 ；经济发展；统计分析；数学模型；GDP ABSTRACT With the development of the worldwide of economics, especially after china was enrolled by WTO, the degree of import and export trade was raised in the development of economics in our country little by little, and was paid more and more attention .In recent years, import and export trade have been keeping favourable balance .Therefore, the relation between favorable balance and the development of economics was paid more and more emphasis and importance by many scholar and specialist. However, is continuous favourable balance bad or good for our county’s economics? is continual increasing import and export trade really reflected our country’s healthy economics, or strong energy? In this paper, mathmatical and statistical software Eviwes and SPSS was used to analyze data on the amount of import and export trade and GDP and the construction of import and export trade ，in order to explain the importance of import and export trade on Chinese economics. As well, according to the analysis on the date and realization ,the suggestions on how to promote the development of economics are given. The policy of trade dominated by export should be changed into the one dominated by strategic administration, namely not only to go in for favourable balance. Promoting the development o