Simulacra amp; Simulation - QUERI像amp；模拟QUERI.pptVIP

* * * * * Simulacra Simulation( Health Care-Associated Infections) Michael Rubin, MD, PhD Section Chief, Epidemiology VA Salt Lake City Health Care System Military Simulations Models in which theories of warfare can be tested and refined without the need for actual hostilities Provide insights that can be applied to real-world situations a non-prescriptive attempt to inform the decision-making process Military Simulations Exist in many different forms, with varying degrees of realism Are they really useful? Models in Healthcare Research Familiar models Statistical regression models: Linear, Logistic, Poisson, etc. Used for prediction, inference, hypothesis testing, and modeling of causal relationships Rely heavily on the underlying simplifying assumptions being satisfied Models in Healthcare Research Familiar models Equation-based models Compartmental models, Differential Equation models S(t) R(t) I(t) βI(t) r S I R Models in Healthcare Research Less familiar models: simulations Many different types of simulations Continuous Dynamic simulations Discrete Event simulations Monte Carlo simulations Agent-based simulations Agent-Based Models Agent-based models Individual-based models/Individual-agent models System is modeled as collection of autonomous decision-making entities (agents) which exist/interact within an environment or framework Each agent assesses its situation and makes decisions based on a set of rules (behaviors) and characteristics (parameters) System-level observables emerge from individual actions Agent-Based Models S I R Susceptible Infected Recovered Each individual agent exists in a particular “state” (“Statechart”) States correspond to the different compartments in the SIR model Transitions between states are governed by rates Agent-Based Models Agent-based models: Benefits Can explore dynamics out of the reach of pure mathematical methods Events occur stochastically rather than deterministically Can exhibit complex behavior patterns, so