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J.P. 摩根-中国房地产股第四次黄金购买机会,恐惧超过了基本面.docx 49页

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China PropertyFear outweighing fundamentals; the fourth golden buying opportunity to come [ex-A shares]A series of negative newsflow has come at a bad time, which has caused market over-reaction: (1) Rmb depreciation amid a trade war; (2) scrapping of resettlement subsidies; (3) reiteration by NDRC of offshore bond issuance usage. We are surprised by the magnitude of the correction (-19%) as the market was not optimistic to start with, and after the current sell-off, the sector is now trading at 6.1x 12-month forward P/E, which is already very close to the trough valuation of 5.4-5.5x (when sales had slowed down and credit costs had gone up in 2011 and 2014, and CNY was the weakest amid policy tightening in 4Q16). We think the macro property market will remain stable, with developers’ market share gains to continue with expansion funded mainly from pre-sell deposits. This offers the fourth golden opportunity to invest in some favorable risk-rewards in the sector in our view, with potential returns possibly similar to that in 2011, 2014, and 2016.2H2018 market outlook: Overall credit to the industry will remain neutral with tightening in trust financing but slight growth in bank loans we think. The market should continue to see some undersupply due to a combination of price caps and land supply control; hence, sell-through rate should remain high we think. Price appreciation should continue, with overall volume broadly flat in FY2018 we believe. Commodity prices had a low base in 1H2017; hence, 1H2018 property PPI looks high but is set to come down in 2H2018, when the base goes up. Hence, we expect full-year real estate investments to grow at only 7.2%, vs 8.9% in 5M2018.Market to stabilize soon: On the equity side, the market tends to over-react to any big macro event, and we believe this time is no exception. Back in August 2015, when the Rmb was depreciating, the sector was down 16% in two weeks, and now it is down 19% in two weeks. The biggest risk to developers


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