我国经济政策对商品房价格波动影响的理论及实证分析-theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of chinas economic policies on the fluctuation of commercial housing prices.docxVIP

II II ABSTRACT Since the real estate market reforms in 1998, China has ended the kind of public housing distribution system, and gradually began to reform the real estate. With the rapid growth of the economy and monetary reform, the real estate prices rise rapidly in China. The real estate prices not only affect the development of the real estate market, also largely affect the purchasing power of residents. Suppressing Irrational rising of commercial housing to ensure the healthy development of the real estate market, the state has adopted a series of macro-control policies, but the prices of real estate did not return to the rational level. The first chapter of this paper is the introduction, including the ideas, methods, and the contribution of this study, and then the third chapter reviews the literature should and how economic policy intervene real estate prices as well as the government’s practical experiences. The main conclusions include: If the government pursuit of economic growth or the low unemployment rate, the real estate prices will rise rapidly. Because of the governments acts of dishonesty, regulatory policies will be effectiveness. The determination of the government to control prices, the policy of continuing also largely affected prices. The fourth chapter, based on VAR model and the quarterly data of 2000-2012, and using the impulse response function and Granger causality test, we explain the causes of the real estate bubble from a very different view. We mainly think about why the government can’t stable the estate industry easily. Empirical evidence shows that: the tax is not significant on curbing housing prices and there is a significant lag. Social fixed assets investment is used to reflect the national pursuit of a higher economic growth rate, we found that a significant role in the social investment in fixed assets of the rising prices, that is, if a government excessive pursuit of economic growth and then the estate rose. In the short t