我国财政制度变迁对社会保障支出影响分析-analysis of the impact of chinas financial system changes on social security expenditures.docxVIP

- - i - 摘 要 新中国成立以后，我国财政制度经过复杂演变，国家财政公共性日趋明显，对我国 社会保障支出产生了重要影响。本文首先回顾并总结了国内外有关财政制度变迁、中国 财政制度体制创新、中国财政制度变迁与经济发展、中国财政制度与收入分配、中国社 会保障支出等方面的文献研究；其次，阐述了我国财政制度变迁过程，指出了我国财政 制度经过统收统支财政制度、财政包干制度、分税制财政制度、公共财政制度四阶段变 迁，总结了四阶段变化特点；第三，简要地阐述了财政制度对社会保障的地位转变、规 模增长、结构变化、功能维护等四方面的作用效应，并详细地阐述了财政制度变迁影响 社会保障支出地位转型作用、社会保障增长作用、社会保障结构调控作用和社会保障功 能维护作用及作用机制；第四，结合理论分析，利用改革开放之后财政制度数据、同期 社会保障支出数据以及国内生产总值数据为样本，对样本数据进行了平稳性检验、在建 立两组 VAR 模型的基础上对变量进行协整检验和格兰杰因果检验，然后选择最优 VAR 模型进行脉冲分析和方差分解，并继续构建了 VEC 模型研究两者之间短期波动关系， 最后引入虚拟变量研究不同阶段财政制度变迁对社会保障影响。实证分析出我国财政制 度变迁对社会保障支出确实具有增长促进作用和地位提升作用，财政制度变迁与社会保 障支出具有长期均衡关系和短期调整机制，财政制度变迁是社会保障支出的格兰杰原因 等结论。最后，结合理论和实证回归模型，提出以下四点政策建议：第一，规范财政转 移支付制度；第二，优化财政公共服务支出的项目结构；第三，加快政府职能转变，进 一步加大社会保障投入；第四，努力缩小社会保障支出的城乡差距。 关键词：财政制度变迁；社会保障支出；公共财政；公共服务 - - ii - ABSTRACT After the founding of PRC, China’s fiscal system experiences a complex evolution process. With the development of the fiscal system, national fiscal has become more and more public, and it has four important influences on social security spending. Firstly, this paper summarizes the documents which are about the changes in the China’s fiscal system, the institutional innovation of China’s fiscal system, the relationship between the changes in the China’s fiscal system and economic development, the relationship between income distribution and China’s fiscal system and the social security spending. Secondly, this paper expounds Chinas financial system evolution process. China’s fiscal system experiences four stage changes, which are unified revenue and expenditure system, fiscal responsibility system, tax sharing system and public finance system, then summarizes their characteristics. Thirdly, this paper briefly describes the fiscal system’s effects to the social security. These effects are status changes, the growth of scale, structural changes and functional maintenance. And this paper elaborates the influence of fiscal system’s changes to the status of social security, the grown of social security, the structure of social s