限购政策与房产价格的关系研究——基于住房贷款与房价的协整分析-research on the relationship between purchase restriction policy and housing price - based on the cointegration analysis of housing loan and housing price.docx

A Abstract PAGE PAGE III Abstract At present, With the rapid development of the real estate market and an unprecedented rise in house prices, the central government gives a high attention to the real estate market. So the government issued a series of policy to regulate the real estate market and hopes to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market. Among those policies, the most concerned about is a series of restrictions of purchase price. The first, the rising of housing loan interest rates; the second, the rising of down payment ratio. In addition to this, for those cities which commercial housing prices rising too fast, the government can also abolish the preferential policy of the third housing loans. No matter which one the government will take, the source of capital of purchasing houses would be limited. The different scholars have different views on the purchasing restrictions policy. Some scholars believe that the policy is good for the estate market, and some scholars reckon that the policy will destroy the normal order of housing market. Based on this situation, this article selects “the personal housing loan” and “housing sales price” as the research object. And selects to study the relationship between them as the research problem. So according this, we puts forward some ideas: The first step, based on the effect of the implementation of the policy for purchasing, think that purchase restrictions have significant effects on individual housing loans. According the actual values of personal housing loans, we can find that despite the restrictions, but the personal housing loan balance is growing. The article obtains from the actual situations, based on the reality of the economic development of the real estate market, and eventually think that the higher the enforcement of restrictions, the higher the personal housing loan balance. The second step, based on the reality, Assumes that individual housing loans can affect real estate prices