供应不确定下基于预售策略的ATO供应链优化研究お.docVIP

供应不确定下基于预售策略的ATO供应链优化研究お 　　摘要：针对由多个零部件供应商、单个制造商和一个零售商所组成的按订单装配式供应链，本文在零部件供应不确定的环境中，分析了在分散决策和集中决策下制造商和零售商各自的订单决策及期望利润，在此基础上提出了制造商在线预售策略，并比较分析预售对供应链各级成员决策的影响。通过建立预售模型及证明推导，研究结果表明：如果无法从其他竞争对手吸引更多的消费者，制造商在线预售会损害零售商的利益；而且预售策略并不总是优于集中决策。零售商对预售的反应策略是反直觉的：预售量越小，零售商越有涨价的动机；预售量越大，零售商反而需要通过折扣来最大化期望利润。 　　关键词：制造商预售；按订单装配；供应不确定 　　中图分类号：F274文献标识码：A文章编号2017 　　doi：10.11847/fj.36.2.64 　　Research on Advance Sellingbased ATO Supply ChainOptimization under Uncertain Supply 　　LI Yipeng1， MA Shihua2， YUAN Kaifu3 　　（1.School of Information and Safety Engineering， Zhongnan University of Economics and Law， Wuhan 430073， China； 2.School of Management， Huazhong University of Science and Technology， Wuhan 430074， China； 3.School of Business Administration， Guizhou University of Finance and Economics， Guiyang 550025， China） 　　Abstract：Considers an assembletoorder supply chain comprised of multicomponent suppliers， single manufacturer and one retailer. Under the components’ random yielding， analyses manufacturer and retailer’s ordering decision and expected profits respectively in disperse and centralized decision. Based on that， presents manufacturer’s online advance selling policy. And compares the impact of advance selling on every members along supply chain. Through advance selling modeling and proof deducing， the result shows： advance selling can be harmful to retailer’s benefit if it can’t switch more consumers from competitors. And advance selling policy isn’t always dominant over centralized decision. The retailer’s reaction to advance selling is counterintuitive： the less quantity of advance selling， the more motive retailer has to rise price； the more， the retailer need to discount to maximize expected profit. 　　Key words：manufacturer advance selling； assembletoorder； supply uncertainty 　　1引言 　　企?I为了缓解市场需求不确定的风险，提升产品的多样性、制造的灵活性和响应消费者的及时性，常采用按订单装配（assembletoorder，ATO）的生产方式[1]。特别是在飞机、汽车制造（如波音、丰田汽车、东风本田等）、消费电子产品（如Dell电脑、联想、苹果手机、笔记本）等行业，制造商往往仅持有多种零部件库存，当接收来自下游