基于GIS技术常山胡柚冻害风险评估.docVIP

基于GIS技术常山胡柚冻害风险评估 　　摘要：对常山胡柚（Citrus paradisi cv.Changshanhuyou）冻害进行风险评估，为常山县胡柚种植提高产量及冻害防灾减灾提供科学指导。通过自然灾害风险指数及层次分析法，综合考虑常山县致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4个方面的影响，确定常山县胡柚冻害的风险分布情况。常山县胡柚冻害地区分布不均匀，从西南到东北冻害风险有递增趋势。西南部是遭受冻害的低风险区，更适宜胡柚的种植，而东北部及南部的山地丘陵地带是遭受冻害的高风险区，不适宜胡柚的种植。冻害区划可以为今后胡柚的种植及防灾减灾提供指导。 　　关键词：胡柚（Citrus paradisi cv.Changshanhuyou）；冻害；等级划分；风险区划 　　中图分类号：S666 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2018）09-0108-04 　　DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2018.09.026 　　Application of GIS to Risk Assessment of Frost Damage of Changshan Grapefruit 　　GAO Cao1，ZHANG Fang-min2，SUN Yu2，LI Lan-xin2，LIU Jiang2，LI Wei-peng2，HUANG Chong3 　　（1.Guodian Environmental Protection Research Institute，Nanjing 210031，China；2.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology，Nanjing University of Information Science Technology，Nanjing 210044，China；3.Quzhou Meteorological Center，Quzhou 324000，Zhejiang，China） 　　Abstract： To evaluate the risk of freezing damage of Changshan Grapefruit（Citrus paradisi cv.Changshanhuyou），and to provide scientific guidance for Grapefruit production in Changshan county and the prevention of freezing damage. Through the natural disaster risk index and the analytic hierarchy process，the dangerousness of freezing disaster-causing factors，the environmental susceptibility of the disaster，the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation of freezing damage were studied. According to the risk division map of Grapefruit in Changshan county，it was found that the distribution of the freezing damage in Changshan county was uneven. The risk of freezing damage increases from southwest to northeast. The southwest region is the lowest risk area of freezing damage，and more suitable for the cultivation of grapefruit. In contrast，the northeastern and southern mountainous hills is a highly risk area of frost damage，so it is less suitable for the cultivation