基于IGM模型城市供水源地水质指标预测.docVIP

基于IGM模型城市供水源地水质指标预测 　　摘要：城市供水源地水质的好坏，不仅直接影响着城市的经济和社会发展，而且会对城市居民的健康产生威胁，因此对水源地的水质预测就显得格外重要。现以武汉市的主要供水源地水质指标（高锰酸盐指数）为研究对象，尝试着应用经指数平滑改进后的GM(1,1)模型（IGM(1,1)模型）对武汉市9个水厂的水源地水质进行预测。从预测精度来看，IGM(1,1)模型预测精度较常规GM(1,1)模型有所提高，在9个水厂中，5个IGM(1,1)模型精度高于常规型，3个持平，1个稍低。从预测结果来看，6个水厂供水源地水质预测发展趋势良好，3个水源地水质变化趋势较差。?? 　　关键词：城市取水源地；IGM(1,1)模型；水质预测?? 　　中图分类号：X824 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-1683（2008）03-0032-04 　　 　　Water Quality Indicator Prediction Based on the Improved GM(1,1) Model in the Urban Water Supply Areas?? 　　─A Case Study of Wuhan ?? 　　SONG Yue-Jun.??1,2,3??，WU Sheng-Jun.??1,2??，FENG Qi??1,2,4??，LI Tao??1,2,4??，LI Xiao-dong??1,2,3???? 　　（1.Institute of Geodesy Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan 430077,China；2.Hubei Province Key Laboratory for?? Environment and Disaster Monitoring and Evaluating,Wuhan 430077,China；3.Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,??Beijing 100039,China;4.School of Resource and Environmental Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China)?? 　　Abstract:As water quality of the urban water-supplying areas influences the economic and social development of the city,especially the resident living,its prediction is of importance.We took the permanganate index of the water quality in the water supplying areas of Wuhan city as research case by using Improved Gray Model (GM(1,1)) from the conventional GM(1,1) model by exponential smoothing process.The results showed that among the 9 water supplying areas,the predicting precision of 5 areas was better than the conventional GM(1,1) model,of 3 was the same as the conventional model and of 1 was a little worse than the conventional model.the permanganate index of 6 water-supplying areas was being better,and of 3 was worse.?? 　　Key words:urban water-supplying area; improved GM (1,1) model; the water quality prediction 　　 　　 由于水在工农业生产中的重要性，城市供水源地水体必须是数量与质量的统一，即不仅要有足够的水量，也要求有良好的水质。近年来，由于工农业的发展，许多地区的水源受到严重污染，直接影响着城市的经济和社会发展，威胁城市居民的身体健康，因此对水源地的水质预测就显得格外重要。水质预测现在主要有线性回归预测模型、模糊理论模型、灰色预测模型以及神经网络模型[1-3]等。灰色预