碧流河流域气候变化对水资源量影响研究.docVIP

碧流河流域气候变化对水资源量影响研究 　　摘要:利用碧流河流域1978年-2007年逐日降水量和气温资料,用气候趋势、气候倾向率和mann-kendall秩次相关检验等方法和高桥浩一郎公式对流域气候变化及其对地表水资源量的影响进行了分析计算。最后建立流域水资源量评估模型。结果表明;① 碧流河流域30年来气温呈显著增高,降水量、水资源量呈不显著减少趋势;② 流域水资源量与降水量存在明显的正相关关系,相关系数为0.94;建立的评估模型可以较为准确的对流域水资源量做出定量评价,该模型对流域大气降水资源量评价具有一定的参考价值。 　　关键词:气候变化;水资源量;评估模型 　　中图分类号:TV211.1;P426文献标识码:A文章编号:1672-1683(2010)05-0076-04 　　 　　A Study on Characteristics of Climate Change and its Influence on Water Resources in Resent 30 Years in Biliuhe River Basin 　　 PENG Zhao-liang,HE Bin,WANG Guo-li,WANG Zi-ru 　　(School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China) 　　 　　Abstract: The characteristics of climate change and its influence to surface water resources in Biliuhe river basin are analyzed through multi-methods of climate variation,trend analysis,Mann-Kendall trend test and Takahashis evaporation equation using the observed daily temperature and precipitation data from 1978 to 2007.A water resources assessment model of Biliuhe river basin is established.The results show that:① in recent 30 years,the annual average temperature of Biliuhe river basin has a increasing trend obviously.The annual precipitation and water resources has a decreasing trend no-obviously;② Correlation analysis show that there is a significant positive correlation between the annual precipitation and the water resources,and the correlation coefficient is 0.94.By applying the water resources assessment model established in this article,the water resources of Biliuhe river basin can be evaluated more accurately.It also has a reference value on water resources assessment in other basin. 　　Key words: climate change;water resources quantity;assessment model 　　 　　近些年来,由于温室气体排放量的持续增加,所引起的全球气候变化已成为国际社会所关注的重大问题。据研究,在过去的100年里,全球气温平均升高了0.6 ℃左右;近40年来我国的平均气温也以0.04 ℃/10 a的速度上升[1]。由气候变化导致的海平面上升,暴雨、洪水等极端事件频繁发生,已经对水资源产生了重要的影响。 　　碧流河流域位于大连市北部,流域控制面积为2 085 km??2,占大连市总面积的15.8%。碧流河流域属于暖温带半干旱、半湿润季风兼有海洋性的气候特点,是气候变化的脆弱区域。多年来由于降水量的稀少且时空分布不均,加之近年来需水量的快速