城市空间增长背景下基于区位势能的交通生成与分布预测-交通运输规划与管理专业论文.docxVIP

Based on the Location Potential Energy of Trip Production and Distribution Forecasting Under the Background of Urban Space Expansion A Dissertation Submitted for the Degree of Master Candidate：Jiang Jiaying Supervisor：Prof. Peng Hui Chang’an University, Xi’an, China 摘 要 城市是个复杂庞大的系统，存在着众多生长因素，无限多的变量和刺激生长 的催化剂，使得城市机体始终处于一个不断运动、变化的过程中。《雅典宪章》 定义城市的四项基本功能是“交通、工作、生活和休憩”，其实现的载体是土地， 交通是联系其他功能的纽带，交通需求是伴随着城市的产生而产生的。城市空间 增长作为当今城市发展的一种常态和必经的过程，会对城市生活的各个方面产生 影响，特别是作为一种深远的因素作用于城市交通系统，尤其是城市交通需求。 本文首先简要阐述了城市空间增长的相关理论及我国城市空间增长的现状， 得出我国城市空间增长有着向均衡化、集约化和区域群体化发展的趋势。其次从 城市空间增长的四个方面分别分析了城市交通需求的变化特征，特别是对居民出 行频数、出行距离、出行方式选择等随着空间增长的演变，在此基础上引入了区 位势能这一概念，作为城市空间增长对交通需求作用的中间因素，并依据需求预 测的要求划分了发生区位影响系数和吸引区位影响系数，并对其主要影响因素进 行分析，得出相应的量化方法。然后依据交通小区发生和吸引的行为组成，即交 通小区出行发生包含基于居住用地的非回程出行和基于商业用地、工业用地等的 回程出行，小区出行吸引包含基于商业用地、工业用地等的非回程出行和基于居 住用地的回程出行，分别建立了交通生成与分布模型，最后以西宁市为实例进行 了模型的应用，为城市交通需求预测提供了另外一种思路。 关键词：城市空间增长；交通需求；区位势能；交通生成；交通分布 I Abstract The city is a big and complex system, there exist a lot of growth factors, unlimited number of variables and catalyst make the body of city is always in a process of change. The 《Athens Charter》 definition of city four basic functions is traffic, work, life and rest, the land is its carrier and the traffic is link of other functions, so the traffic demand is accompanied by the produce of the city. The urban space expansion as a normal and inevitable process will affect every aspect of life, especially to the traffic demand of the city. This paper firstly expounds the theory of the urban space expansion and the present situation of urban space expansion, results that the urban space has a development trend to balancing, intensive and regional mass. Secondly, the paper analyzed the change characteristics of the urban traffic demand especially to the travel times, travel distance, and transport modes from four aspects of the urban space expansion. On this basis introduce the location potential energy as an effect factors to traffic demand, and divides it to produce and attr