城市轨道交通车站客流分析预测-交通运输规划与管理专业论文.docxVIP

摘 要 随着我国社会经济的发展，城市交通需求不断增长，机动车保有量不断增加，我国 大城市面临着交通拥堵、环境污染和交通安全等问题。为了适应我国经济快速发展和可 持续发展的需要，大城市纷纷选择城市轨道交通来解决城市交通问题。城市轨道交通建 设费用巨大，车站土建费用在整个轨道交通建设费用中更是占有相当大比例。准确、合 理预测车站客流需求，把握车站建设规模，是在满足未来乘客乘车需求的前提下，减少 轨道交通建设费用的有效方法。 论文对车站的功能、设施进行了论述，分析《地铁设计规范》的相关条文规定及车 站客流在车站设施规模设计中的应用，对车站客流的接驳换乘方式及特征进行了阐述； 在国内车站客流调查的基础上，对车站客流时空分布特征、乘客站内行为特征进行了研 究，分析了车站客流的影响因素，对车站客流吸引范围进行了分析计算；对传统的车站 客流预测进行了论述，在车站吸引范围划分的基础上，通过计算广义出行费用，建立了 基于出行方式链的概率选择模型，运用模型对车站进出站客流量和换乘客流量进行计 算；选取西宁市城市轨道交通规划线网中的中心广场站进行了实例分析。 关键词：城市轨道交通，轨道交通车站，车站客流，出行方式链 I Abstract As Chinas social and economic development, urban transport demand and vehicle population increased, the large cities are facing the problem of traffic congestion, environmental pollution and traffic safety. In order to meet the needs of Chinas rapid economic development and sustainable development, many big cities have chosen the urban rail transit to solve the urban traffic problem. The cost of urban rail transit construction is enormous, and station construction costs accounts for a sizeable proportion of the entire rail transit construction costs. Accurately and reasonably forecasting station passenger flow needs and grasping the scale of the station building, is an effective way to reduce the cost of rail transit construction under the premise of meeting the passenger ridership demand in the future. The paper introduces the function and facilities of the station, lists the use of station passenger flow in the design of the size of the station facilities according to the Metro Design and describes transfer mode and features of the station passenger flow. The paper also analyzes the space-time distribution characteristics and behavioral features of the station passenger flow on the basis of the domestic station passenger survey. This paper analyzes the influencing factors of the station passenger flow and calculates the station attract passenger range. The paper introduces the traditional station passenger flow forecast method. The model of probability of c