房地产价格与宏观调控因素关系实证分析分析-区域经济学专业论文.docxVIP

Abstract At the year of 1998, the welfare housing system was abolished by the government, and the real estate market which is recognized as a new economic boom and a consumption hot spot, began to develop rapidly. The development of the real estate market contributes to the development of other relative industries, which makes itself become the precursor and mainstay industry of the economy, and makes a great contribution to the rapid growth of GDP. Meanwhile, the question is that the real estate price rises unceasingly with the rapid development of real estate, and the phenomenon of excessive prosperity takes place. Especially in recent years, real estate price is much higher out of the government and ordinary peoples expectations. The idle funds flow into real estate market, and the speculation pushes real estate price to a much higher position. It is not benefit for our countrys real estate market and social security of our people. In this article, by analyzing real estate price and investment in fixed assets, land price, interest rate, Real Estate Tax which are related with macro-control from 1998, we find some correlations between these factors and real estate price in recent years. And by the volatility of the real estate market, testing, regression analysis, we can confirm short-term and long-term factors which have influence on real estate price. The test methods we use are the Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test, and the data is from 1998 to 2010 with real estate price, investment in fixed assets, land price, interest rate and real estate tax. We confirm that these factors affect real estate price, the government can inhibit the real estate price by adjusting these factors. Finally, the purpose of this paper is to put forward some suggestions on how to use these short-term and long-term factors to suppress real estate price rising too fast by using our test results and empirical analysis. Keywords: Real Estate Price Investment in