房地产开发的实物期权模型探究及参数分析-运筹学与控制论专业论文.docxVIP

Abstract A high degree of uncertainty makes real estate developers to turn their attention to a more reasonable real estate development decision-making and a more scientific theory of investment. Introducing real options into real estate can be used to allow developers to react accordingly based on the uncertainty of the future, which is of great significance. Based on the Quigg’s real option model framework, we started form the fixed-cost real estate development activities to explore the real option model that can be applied to real estate development, then we made a detailed analysis of the real option model of Quigg’s variable costs model. We deeply analyzed the optimal development density under different target selection, by maximizing the value of the option value, we obtained the optimal development construction scale while Quigg got the optimal density by maximizing the option value after the strike and the development, our option value was higher than Quigg’s. Combined with Quigg’s mode and the optimal development density which is obtained by maximizing the option value, we took a deep sight to the parameters in the real option model, control variate method was used to investigate the impact of the various parameters on the results of the model. According to this investigation, we set some reasonable range of changes for some parameters. According to the analysis of the model parameters and some reasonable ranges, we discussed the estimations of the model parameters, we showed the estimation method of the land lease rate and the cost elasticity of scale, and we also estimated the price of the buildings to be developed by using Hedonic model empirically, which is a good example for the statistical model applied to the real options. This paper studied the available models and possible methods of analysis for decision-making option value of the real estate development projects, which would make it more scientific for the real estate investment and developmen