房地产投资风险管理研究-管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

摘 要 房地产业已逐渐成为国民经济的支柱产业和新的经济增长点 由于其过快发 展与投资过热 给房地产投资者带来巨大的风险损失 对房地产投资风险管理的 研究已成为保证房地产业健康发展的重大课题 本研究采用定性分析和定量分析相结合 理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法 对房地产投资风险管理进行了针对性研究 首先 对房地产的投资决策 土地获 取 项目建设 经营管理四个阶段存在的风险进行了识别 其次 在风险识别的 基础上 选择合理的指标 建立房地产投资风险预警预报系统 并对乌市房地产 市场情况进行实证预警 同时 本研究提出风险因子预期值计算方法 将概率分 析与传统评估方法相结合创建多因素风险收益法 并选用风险变异系数 来计算 风险的大小 引入投资的系统风险度来评估投资项目和投资整体市场共同走势 建立了一套风险评估方法 并以乌鲁木齐国际大巴扎为例进行了实证风险评估分 析 最后 基于对风险的识别 预警和评估 提出相应的风险控制对策 加强投 资风险管理 以增强企业防范及化解风险的能力 降低风险损失 提高企业的市 场竞争力 关键词 房地产投资风险管理 预警预报系统 风险评估 风险控制 Study on Risk Management of Real Estate Investment Ran Qi - Ying(Land Resource Management) Supervised by Prof. Zhu Mei-Ling ABSTRACT Real estate is gradually becoming the infrastructure industry of national economy and new economic growth point. However, over-development and over-hot of real estate investment have brought great risk loss for investors. So, how to research the investment risk of real estate systematically is an important task to ensure real estate s developing healthily. In this article, author used the method of combining qualitive analysis with quantive analysis, and theoretic analysis with practical analysis, to study investment risk of real estate. Based on recognizing main risks from four processes of real estate investment, author designed risk forecast system, on which author analyzed the practical condition of Urumqi. Moreover, author expounded a calculative method of risk- factors expect, promoted the methodology of multi - factors risk earnings, introduced the risk-abe rrance coefficient to calculate the risk, used systemic risk degree to estimate co-trend between objected item and the whole market. In the thesis, author constructed a risk-estimating method, on which author analyzed the case of Xinjiang International Bazaar. At last ,on all-aboved, author advocated according measures to control risk, in order to enforce enterprises ability of avoiding and resolving risk ,to decline risk cost, and to en