房地产泡沫测度方法研究及实证分析-技术经济及管理专业论文.docxVIP

摘 要 房地产业是我国的支柱产业，它带动了三十多个相关行业的发展，从投资和 消费两个方面拉动中国经济的增长，房地产业的健康发展是国民经济健康发展的 前提条件，因此研究房地产泡沫及其测度方法具有重要意义。 2009 年 6 月份房地产业行情急转直上，成交量大幅攀升，房价稳步上涨，上 演了“地王频出”、“量价齐升”、“一房难求”的火爆场面，中国楼市迅速地由低迷转 变为亢奋，由萧条转变为繁荣，对我国房地产是否存在泡沫的争论也越演越烈。 文章先阐述房地产泡沫的定义、特征、形成原因、危害、测度方法等相关理 论，然后是运用指标法测度重庆市房地产泡沫的大小，最后提出预防房地产泡沫 的措施。 房地产泡沫的测度方法的比较分析是研究的重点，主要阐述了指标法、理论 价格法、统计检验法的基本理论及适用性。理论价格法和统计检验法因所需数据 众多，而我国相关统计数据不足，此两种方法在我国的应用受限。但指标法简便 易懂，所需数据不多且获取方便，因而选定指标法作为测度重庆市房地产泡沫大 小的方法。 实证部分先是从国内生产总值、固定资产投资、房地产投资、人均可支配收 入、房价、商品房销售金额和面积等方面分析重庆市房地产的状况，然后选定了 房地产投资/固定资产投资、房价收入比、租售比作为测度指标，同时选定北京市 作为衡量重庆房地产泡沫的参照城市，横向对比和纵向对比相结合，更直观的反 映重庆市房地产泡沫的大小。房地产投资/固定资产投资、房价收入比、租售三个 指标的计算结果表明：重庆三个指标值均在合理区间内，说明重庆房地产不存在 泡沫；而北京市的三个指标值均远远偏离了标准取值范围，北京市房地产存在严 重泡沫，相关人员要引起重视。 关键词： 房地产泡沫，形成原因，危害，测度方法，预防措施 ABSTRACT Real estate industry is a pillar industry in China. It has led to the development of more than thirty related industries and it also has stimulated the growth of Chinese economy in both investment and consumption. The healthy development of the real estate industry is the prerequisite for the health of the development of the national economy. Therefore, the prevention of the occurrence of the real estate bubble is important. June 2009 real estate market had straighted up sharply , trading volume rose sharply, housing prices rose steadily, staged a battle of the heroes land king constantly present, volume and price rose, hard to get a room . The Chinese property market quickly transformed into excitement by the downturn, the recession into prosperity, the controversy about the existence of real estate bubble has intensified. This is the subjects background. This paper firstly studies the theory of the real estate bubble, including the definitions, characteristics, causes, hazards and the measurement methods of real estate bubble; next, empirical analysis was carried out based on the theories above, the size of t the real estate bubble in Chongqing was measured by the index method ; Finally, a real estate bubble of the preventive measur