城市道路交通安全及其评价方法研究-机械制造及其自动化专业论文.docx

摘 要 本论文依托于广东省科技计划项目《广东科学中心 C 标“交通世界”展馆展品 设计与制造承建》的子项目《T29 交通安全知识》，通过对我国部分城市近几年交通 事故资料的统计和分析，对城市道路交通事故的客观成因、评价方法展开了深入研 究，并对交通冲突这一新兴的非事故统计评价方法进行了系统探讨。 本论文的主要内容为：通过对哈尔滨市交通事故数据的分析，对交通组成对城 市道路交通事故的影响进行了深入的研究，得出大型车、货车、摩托车是城市道路 中干扰交通流、影响交通安全的主要因素这一结论。通过对桂林市、广州市道路交 通事故数据的分析，对城市道路交通事故的分布规律进行了深入研究，揭示了交通 事故在时间上、不同道路及不同交通管理条件下的分布规律。在对交通冲突技术进 行深入研究的基础上，通过引入潜在冲突量和混合交通当量，以潜在冲突量与混合 交通当量的比值 ?PC / MPCU ?作为交通安全的评价指标，利用灰色聚类的分析方法， 建立了一套道路交通安全的评价方法。并对桂林市的九个交叉口进行了安全程度的 评价，得出的结果与交警常用的百万辆车事故率法的评价结果一致。 关键词：交通事故，交通安全，冲突，评价方法，灰色聚类 Research on the traffic safety and method of evaluation in urban streets ABSTRACT This paper, relying on the subdivision of “T29 traffic safety knowledge” in the Guangdong scientific and technological project of “The Pavilion Construction of Guangdong Science Center Project C And The Exhibits Design”, collecting and analyzing traffic accident data of recent years in some cities, researches deeply the objective causes of road traffic accidents in the cities and the evaluation ways. As well, it systematically discusses on the new non-accident statistical evaluation way of the traffic conflict. The paper mainly includes that, analyzes the traffic accident data in Harbin city; researches how the traffic composition impacts on the city road traffic accident; consequently concludes that, large cars, trucks, Motorcycles are major factors of interfering the road traffic flow and affecting the traffic safety. By analyzing data of the road traffic accidents in Guilin and Guangzhou, researching on the distribution rule of urban road traffic accidents, this paper discovers the distribution rule under different time, different roads and different traffic management conditions. On the basis of in-depth study on traffic conflict techniques, it takes into variables of the potential conflicts and the mix of par car unit, uses the ratio between potential conflict ?PC ?  and mix of par car unit ?MPCU ?  as the evaluation index, adapts gray clustering analysis, and finally creates a