房地产价格波动对我国金融稳定的影响研究-金融学专业论文.docxVIP

房地产价格波动对我国金融稳定的影响研究 内容摘要 随着房地产市场化改革的不断深入，房地产行业在我国国民经济中的 地位日益上升。它不仅迅速成为带动我国 GDP 增长的支柱性产业，而且它 与金融业的关系也日渐紧密，并成为影响我国经济与金融系统稳定的主要 因素。如果房地产价格过度上涨并脱离了实际价值，当其价格泡沫破裂时， 房地产行业风险将通过各种途径传导到我国的金融领域，使得金融系统的 稳定性下降，严重时将导致危机的发生。 本文首先研究了房地产价格波动的相关理论及我国房地产价格波动的 现状，并详细的分析了金融稳定的含义以及房地产价格波动影响我国金融 稳定的渠道。在此基础上,本文选择了有代表性的 15 个指标，运用因子分 析法将其综合构建成反映我国金融状况的金融稳定指数。然后本文运用向 量自回归模型（VAR）等工具定量分析了中国房地产价格波动对金融稳定的 具体影响,得出结论并有针对性的提出了一些抑制我国房地产价格过度波 动的对策建议。 关键词：房地产价格波动,金融稳定指数,向量自回归模型 THE INFLUENCE STUDY OF REAL ESTATE PRICE FLUCTUATION ON FINANCEIAL STABILITY ABSTRACT Along with the continuous deepening of the reform of the real estate market, the status of real estate industry in Chinas national economy is increasing day by day. Not only does it quickly become a drive of GDP growth, it also make the relationship with the finance closer and become the main effect factors on our countrys economic and financial system stability.If real estate prices rise excessively and break away from the support of the practical value,the real estate industrys risk will be conducted to financial system through many ways and make the financial stability decline when the price bubble burst.seriously,it will lead to the occurrence of crisis. This paper firstly analyzes the present situation of the real estate market in our country,and study the meaning of financial stability together with the effect channel of real estate price fluctuation on the financial stability.On this basis, this paper chose about 15 prospective index and constructs the financial stability index using the factor analysis method.Then ,this paper analyzes the influence of Chinese real estate price fluctuation on the financial stability using vector autoregressive model (VAR) tools.In the last,we draw some conclusions and put forward some countermeasures and Suggestions of inhibition in Chinas real estate price excessive fluctuation. KEYWORDS: Real estate prices fluctuation,Financial stability index,Vector auto-regressive model 目 录 第一章 绪论 ·················