房地产投资的风险评价-管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

房地产投资的风险评价 摘 要 房地产投资的特点决定了房地产业是一种典型的风险投资行业。因 此，有必要对房地产投资过程中可能出现的各种风险和不确定性因素作 出较为精确的定性和定量分析。 本文首先从理论上阐述了一种新的房地产投资风险评价方法，然后 以星河世纪城项目为例来验证此理论的可行性和实用性。主要内容如下。 ⑴ 对房地产投资过程中可能存在的各种风险因素进行科学分类，并 分析其产生的原因，从而采取相应的措施来减少风险损失。 ⑵ 对房地产投资过程中的主要不确定因素，如建筑面积、建筑成本、 销售价格、建设周期进行了敏感性分析，指出销售价格是主要的敏感性 因素。 ⑶ 房地产销售价格受多种因素影响，其不确定因素难以把握，是一 个典型的灰色系统。本文采用灰色预测法对房屋销售价格进行预测，并 对预测模型进行检验，证实模型的预测精度达到要求。 ⑷ 运用模糊综合评价模型对项目不同销售时段的销售量进行预测。 ⑸ 通过预测得到的项目净现金流量表，运用正态分布图象法对项目 进行风险量化，得到项目净现值小于零的概率，这作为项目取舍的依据。 通过以上理论结合实践的分析，本文达到了建立一个可行且实用的 风险评价体系的目的。并发现房地产项目销售价格对项目经济上的可行 性是极为重要的，它的预测是否准确将直接决定投资是否成功，并且未 来销售价格的不确定性导致项目存在风险的可能。这些对帮助房地产投 资者在进行房地产投资时作出正确的决策具有重要的指导意义。 关键词：房地产投资，风险评价，销售价格，风险量化，预测 RISK ESTIMATE IN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT ABSTRACT The real estate trade is a representative risk investment trade determined by the features of real estate. So it is necessary to make a comparative precise qualitative and quantitative analysis in real estate investment. At first, the thesis introduced a new method of risk estimate in real estate investment , then an example of Xinghe Century City was used to prove the feasibility and practicality of this theory. The particulars were as follows. ⑴ A variety of risk factors were classified scientifically in real estate investment, and the reasons were analysed, so the right measures were taken to reduce risk expenses. ⑵ Sensitivity analyses on major uncertain factors such as area of building, cost of building, price of real estate, construction period were made , then price of real estate was the most sensitive factor . ⑶ The price of real estate was a representative grey system, because it was affected by a lot of factors, and the uncertain factors were difficult to master. So the thesis would predict the price of real estate by grey prediction, through model test, the accurate grade of the model arrived the standard. ⑷ A new model was used for predicting real estate sales based on fuzzy mathematics theory. ⑸ The cash net flux table of this project was calculated, then ri