房地产泡沫预警研究——以天津为例-技术经济及管理专业论文.docxVIP

房地产泡沫预警研究—以天津为例 摘 要 自 1998 年我国住房制度改革以来，房地产行业也经历了十几年路程。这些年来，房地 产的迅猛发展，为我国的国民经济做出了巨大的贡献，并扩大了消费项目，但是繁荣的背 后，隐藏潜在的风险。目前我国部分地区已经出现了房产投资额增长额幅度过高，市场的 房地产价格上涨到购买者难以承受的高度，并且随着经济全球化的发展，尤其是受到美国 2008 年金融危机后的时代背景下，再加上我国人民币的不断升值，一些国外的热钱不断涌 入我国房地产市场。到底我国房地产市场是否存在泡沫，一些学者和业内的研究者各持己 见。房地产的健康发展关系到金融业、服务业、钢铁业等等的发展，尤其是金融的发展， 在我国传统、单一的融资渠道下，金融业似乎成为了房地产行业资金的最大提供者。 因此，房市到底稳健的发展还是已经出现了泡沫，对于我国的经济发展有着重要的现 实意义。本篇论文从房地产泡沫定义出发，在总结研究了国内外有关泡沫的理论方法基础 之上，建立了计量经济学模型对天津市的房地产市场进行泡沫预警分析研究，鉴于房市价 格对居民生活的影响，也对天津市的居民消费价格指数及相关房屋价格指数利用计量经济 学工具做了检测研究，结论表明天津市的房市的发展属于正常偏热状态，而房地产的销售 价格对居民生活水平造成了一定的影响。并基于上述研究，对天津市的房地产给出了相应 预警区间的建议。 关键词：房地产泡沫，格兰杰因果检验，市场供需求法，泡沫预警 i Real Estate Bubble Warning Research— A Case Study Based On Tianjin Abstract Since the reform of Chinese housing regime in 1998, the real estate industry has also experienced a decade of development. And these years, the rapid development of real estate industry has made great contributions to Chinas economic growth, and expanded consumption items. Behind such prosperity there exists potential risks. At present, the growth margin of real estate investment and the house price are too high to reach for housing buyers in part of our country. With the development of economic globalization, especially under the backgrounds of the financial crisis caused by the united state in 2008, and also with the RMB increasing continuously, some foreign hot money has flowed into the property market. Whether there is a real estate bubble in the hot property market, different person has different opinions. The development of real estate market is related with the development of the financial sector and service sectors, as well as the development of the steel industry, especially the financial industry. Under the background of the single traditional financing channel in our country, the financial sector seems to be the largest money provider to real estate industry. Whether there is a real estate bubble concerns the healthy development of our country economy. Starting from the