发动机售后配件市场需求预测研究-工业工程专业论文.docxVIP

发动机售后配件市场需求预测研究 摘 要 工业品的营销离不开完善的售后服务体系的支持，尤其是及时的配件供应。 目前国内发动机厂虽然都通过各种方式尝试建立有自己特色的售后供应体系，但 大都还是靠巨大的配件库存来满足市场需求，售后市场最终的配件准时交付率、 周转率及盈利能力和国际巨头都存在较大差距。因此，如何较准确地预测售后配 件需求成为发动机厂和配件经销商日益关注的问题。 随着企业信息管理系统应用的普及和完善，可以提供及时、完整、真实的基 础数据，并运用各种需求预测方法进行模拟运算，寻找合适的模型用于配件需求 预测。本文重点分析发动机成长期和成熟期的售后快速流动配件需求，以售后配 件月度需求预测值作为提升售后配件供应链的关键因素，定义了 16 种影响售后 配件需求的因素，利用定量预测法中的多元线性回归法进行模拟测算，建立预测 模型。在此基础上，利用预测结果计算分析安全库存、采购计划数量等信息，通 过预测需求与需求订单的比较与分析制定营销策略，探讨配件需求预测结果在售 后配件供应链管理和营销管理工作中的应用。 关键词：售后配件，需求预测，线性回归，供应链管理 I THE FORECASTING OF ENGINE AFTERMARKET PARTS DEMAND ABSTRACT The marketing of industrial products depends on the support of after service system, particularly the timely supply of spare parts. At present, the domestic engines manufacturers tried a variety of ways to establish after service supply system with its own characteristics, but most of them still rely on huge parts inventory to meet the market demands. Comparing the international giants, there is large gap between them, such as on time delivery rate, turnover and profit ability, etc. Therefore, how to accurately predict the demand of after service parts becomes the problem that all engine companies and parts dealers concerned about more and more. With the popularization and application of enterprise information management system, the basic data can be provided timely, completely, correctly, and various methods of demand forecasting are used to simulate the needs, and to find out a suitable model for the spare parts demand forecast. This thesis is mainly analysis the demands of fast moving aftermarket parts during the engine growth and maturity periods. It is based on the monthly after service parts demand forecast volume as the key index to improve the after service parts supply system, and defines 16 kinds of influence factors, and uses multiple linear regression, a quantitative prediction methods, to analyze and compare, simulate and calculate, and to make the prediction models. On this basis, the forecasting results is used to