近45a蚌埠市气温变化特征剖析.docVIP

近45a蚌埠市气温变化特征剖析 　　摘 要：利用蚌埠市4个地面气象观测站1967-2011年的气温观测资料，运用线性倾向率、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、累积距平、小波分析等方法对蚌埠市近45a来气温变化特征进行分析。结果显示：蚌埠市年平均气温以约0.4℃/10a的速度不断升高，在1993年左右发生了突变。春秋冬三季气温升高趋势明显，均达到极显著水平。秋季升温最为显著，冬季升温幅度最大。夏季气温和极端高温的上升趋势不明显，均为6～8a的周期性变化。高温日数的趋势性变化不明显，为14a左右的周期性变化。平均最低气温、极端最低气温及02：00气温的上升趋势明显。≤0℃的天气日数逐年减少趋势也很明显减少。蚌埠市气候变暖过程中冬季、低温和夜间的贡献率较大。 　　关键词：Mann-Kendall非参数检验法；小波分析；蚌埠市；气温 　　中图分类号 P46 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-7731（2015）09-129-05 　　Temperature Variation Characteristics of Bengbu City in Recent 45 Years 　　Zhang Xian et al. 　　（Bengbu Meteorological Bureau，Bengbu 233000，China） 　　Abstract：In term of the temperature data during 1967-2011 in the four ground meteorological observation stations in Bengbu，through the methods of the linear trend rate，movingaverage，Mann-Kendall nonparametric test，departureaccumulation，etc，main characteristics of temperature variation in Bengbu in recent 45 years wereanalyzed. The results show that：theannualaverage temperature in Bengbu keeps risingata speed ofabout 0.4 degrees Celsius per decade，and it mutated inabout 1993. Warming trends in the three seasons of spring，autumnand winter are obvious，andall reach extremely significant level.Autumn warming change is the most notable，winter warming range is the biggest.Changes of summer warmingand extreme maximum temperatureare not obvious，and both have 6a - 8a cyclical changes. High temperature days trend is not obviousand mainly shows up 14a cyclical changes.The warming trends of theaverage minimum temperature，extreme minimum temperatureand temperatureat 2：00am are obvious.The number of days is less than or equal to 0℃ decreasing trend wasalso significantly reduced.Winter，low temperatureand night make the biggest contribution to the process of climate warming in Bengbu. 　　Key words：Mann-Kendall nonparametric test；Wavelet analysis；Bengbu city；Temperature 　　近年来，全球气候变化已经引起了社会各界的关注。IPCC第5次报告指出：气候系统的暖化是毋庸置疑的，自1950年以来，气候系统观测到的许多变化是过去几十年甚至千年以来史无前例的，1880-2012年，全球海陆表面平均温度呈线性上升趋势，升高了0.85℃；2003-2012年平均温度比18