山西省煤炭资源依赖型产业结构转型效果研究.PDFVIP

赵连荣等 赵连荣等：山西省煤炭资源依赖型产业结构转型效果研究 ·57 · 山西省煤炭资源依赖型产业结构转型效果研究 ——基于2002—2012 年投入产出表的动态分析 赵连荣，葛建平 （中国地质大学（北京）人文经管学院，北京 100083 ） 摘要 ：基于投入产出模型，引入产业发展状况和产业间互动关系的评价指标，动态分析了山西省煤炭资源依赖 型产业结构转型效果。结果显示，煤炭采选业的支柱产业地位在2002—2012 年得到进一步强化 ；服务业部门虽 然逐渐壮大，但与其他产业部门的互动较弱，对山西省产业结构转型无法提供充分的支撑 ；工业部门存在“低端 锁定”现象，但与其他产业部门互动较强，有利于国民经济增长，特别是化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、金 属制品与电子电气设备制造业这三个部门可能成为煤炭采选业的接续产业。 关键词：煤炭资源依赖；产业结构；产业转型；投入产出；山西 中图分类号：F427 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1671-4407(2018)01-057-04 Study on the Effect of Coal-Resource-Dependent Industrial Structure Transformation in Shanxi: A Dynamic Analysis Based on the Input-Output Table from 2002 to 2012 ZHAO Lianrong, GE Jianping (School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China) Abstract: Based on the input-output model, the evaluation indexes on the industrial development status and inter-industry interaction are introduced to analyze dynamically the effect of coal-resource-dependent industrial structure transformation in Shanxi. The results show that the dominant status of coal mining industry was further strengthened from 2002 to 2012; the service industry was gradually expanding but still too weak to provide enough support for the industrial structure transformation in Shanxi; the industrial sectors had a low-end-lock-in phenomenon but interacted with other industries strongly that could promote national economic growth, especially, the chemical sector, the metal smelting and processing sector and the metal products and electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing sector could be a candidate for the coal mining industry. Key words: coal-resource-dependent; industrial structure; industrial transformation; input-output; Shanxi 山西省