资产组合投资策略.pdf

Portfolio Strategist A WEEKLY FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS March 12, 2003 Volume 21, No. 11 The New Investment Diet Fad 3 Almost three years since the Nasdaq’s peak, investors have abandoned the “cult of equities” of the 1990s (as measured by mutual fund outflows) and become obsessed with protecting principal. As a result, they have shifted their attention to bonds, seemingly unaware of the potential harm that this “diet” poses. Tobias M. Levkovich The Cost of Waiting 6 Divisions between the U.S. and its allies over Iraq have left many contemplating a less secure world. While this drama unfolds, the latest data have been discouraging, as it increasingly seems a timely and favorable outcome in Iraq will be a necessary pre- condition to avoid further deterioration in the U.S. economy. Steven Wieting Technology—General: Results of Our New Vendor Choice Survey 8 Using the results of our initial quarterly CIO Vendor Choice Survey, we analyze the spending patterns related to key vendors in several tech-related industries. Heather Bellini, CFA/Patrick Burton, CFA/Dan Cummins/Craig Ellis/ Richard Gardner/Alex Henderson Great Lakes Chemical: More Strategic Clarity and an Attractive Valuation 11 On March 5, we upgraded GLK to Outperform (1H) and raised our price target to $28 from $24. The strategic acquisition of Lime-O-Sol gives us more confidence in Great Lakes’s use of cash, and we believe it has improved its business costs and balance sheet. Gil Yang Paper Forest Products: Reducing Near-Term Estimates;“Out-Year” Numbers Barely Touched 13 We are trimming EPS estimates to reflect an ongoing higher level of energy costs and the impact of harsh weather. We are barely touching any “out-year” EPS estimates, however, as we believe the weaker U.S. dollar will eventually allow price increases to offset any permanent energy cost hikes.