运输风险概念.PDF

運輸風險概念 陳一昌 開南大學 運輸科技與管理系 2015/9/16 1 Risk in our everyday lives(澳洲) We face risks of dying (for one year): • Traveling by train 火車 1:10,283,615 • Traveling by bus巴士 1: 6,696,307 • Lightning雷擊 1: 4,362,746 • Falling out of bed (or chair) 1: 366,804 • Falling on stairs 1: 180,188 • Traveling by car 小客車 1: 17,625 2015/9/16 2 What the psychologists say 心理學家的看法 We are not perfect in assessing everyday risks – we tend to傾向; • overestimate the significance of rare but dramatic factors高估顯然稀少但戲劇化因數 • give risks greater weighting where consequence occurs immediately after cause 事發後給予較高風險權重 • Pay greater attention to the potential losses than the potential gains關心潛在損失勝於受益 2015/9/16 3 Discussion point課堂討論 In your group, come up with: • Three everyday risks that we tend to underestimate; and • Three everyday risks that we tend to overestimate 2015/9/16 4 Definition風險定義 • ‘Risk’ has a common language understanding: from the Oxford English Dictionary – the possibility that something unpleasant will happen (noun)某些不快事情發生之機率 – expose to danger or loss (verb)暴露於危險或損失 • The definition from the Standard(澳洲): The chance of something happening that will have an impact upon objectives某些對目標會產生衝擊的機會 • Can be avoiding the adverse effects of negative events or capitalizing on positive events可以避免負面事件之負面影響或對正面事件之獲益 2015/9/16