基于主成分分析BP神经网络在水华预测中应用.pdfVIP

International Journal of Ecology 世界生态学, 2018, 7(2), 53-60 Published Online May 2018 in Hans. /journal/ije /10.12677/ije.2018.72008 Application of BP Neural Network Based on Principal Component Analysis in Algal Bloom Prediction Jie Xia, Wenqing Wu, Haiyang Xu School of Science, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang Sichuan th nd th Received: Mar. 18 , 2018; accepted: Apr. 2 , 2018; published: Apr. 9 , 2018 Abstract With the intensification of water pollution and eutrophication of freshwater ecosystems, large areas of algal bloom have been included, which not only destroy the ecosystems, but also cause huge economic losses. Therefore, it is very important to predict the occurrence of algal bloom ac- cording to the physical and chemical factors of water body. Firstly, according to the data of the pond for 1~15 weeks, the main influencing factors of 13 physical and chemical factors affecting the total plankton were analyzed based on principal component analysis (PCA). The main influencing factors of algal blooms were total nitrogen, transparency, dissolved oxygen, ammonium nitrogen, salinity, total phosphorus and dissolved oxygen. Secondly, according to the main seven physical and chemical factors identified as the input layer of BP neural network, the plankton biomass was used as the output layer to predict the occurrence of algal bloom. The results show that the fitting coefficient between the predicted result and the true value of the BP neural network model based on principal component analysis is as high as 0.9912. Therefore, the research method in this paper can effectively predict the occurrence of algal bloom.