降雨天气下高速公路交通安全风险评估及应急管理能力研究-载运工具运用工程专业论文.docxVIP

万方数据 万方数据 The Highway Traffic Safety Risk Assessment and Emergency Management Research of Rainfall Weather A Dissertation Submitted for the Degree of Master Candidate：Pan Yifan Supervisor：Prof. Zhao Jianyou Chang’an University, Xi’an, China 万方数据 万方数据 万方数据 万方数据 万方数据 万方数据 摘 要 随着我国高速公路的飞速发展，高速公路的交通安全问题日益成为亟需解决的难题， 高速公路交通事故后果严重，损失巨大，难以处理的显著特点，特别是，由于降雨，路 况更加复杂，从而更容易造成交通事故的发生，对人民财产安全造成了极大的安全隐患。 由于我国高速公路起步较晚，还缺乏对其的相关认识和研究，尤其是在降雨状况下的高 速公路交通安全的研究更有待提升。 本文在总结分析国内外关于降雨天气下的高速公路交通安全运营生产的基础上对 降雨条件下高速公路公路交通事故的特点进行分析，结合相关的数据资料，分析得出降 雨天气下的高速公路安全行车机理，并以此为基础确定降雨天气时高速公路安全行驶的 车速条件。 通过专家调查法以及累积比数 logit 模型这两种方法从单因素影响以及发生概率出 发，对高速公路的交通事故风险进行评估。提出在不同的降雨等级状况下，汽车在高速 公路行驶的理想最高时速。在处理应急状况时，通过层次分析法，根据列出的可能的各 个应急问题的影响范围和可能造成的交通事故的严重程度等指标进行排序，从中找出高 速公路在应急管理中所迫切需要解决的问题。对于各个部门的应急管理能力，提出了相 应的打分标准，对各个职能部门的管理能力进行评价，并对不足之处提出改进建议和行 之有效的措施。 关键词：高速公路、降雨、安全评价、层次分析法 i Abstract With the rapid development of highway . The accident of highway grows quickly. The highway problem has become a big problem to solve. It has many features of serious, large costs, hard to handle and so on. Especially, if under the rain, it becomes much more complicated and much easier to cause accident. Due to the highway research started late in our country, we have pay much less attention on it. Especially under the meteorological disasters . This article summarized the domestic and foreign research about the rainfall weather highway traffic safety operation and production and analysis the highway safety driving mechanism of rain by the highway accident features and the data. Besides we determine the highway safety driving conditions, and the corresponding safety distance of rainfall weather. Besides, the article also has used the expert investigation method and class product score logit model to assess the risk of the highway accident and put forward an ideal highway speed in different rainfall conditions. When dealing with emergency situations, we can use Analytic hierarchy process to rank by the sphere of influence of each emergenc