基于输电线路实时评估模型的电力系统静态安全在线风险评估-电力系统及其自动化专业论文.docxVIP

华中科技 大学硕士 学 华 中 科 技 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 II II ABSTRACT Along with the increasing exposure of the limitations and shortages of the traditional static security analysis methods applied in power system, people are now gradually turning the key research to the uncertain analysis approaches. So far, the probabilistic load flow method which belongs to the uncertain analysis approaches has obtained a thorough research. But the research of applying it to the risk assessment of power system static security is little from the point of view of ensuring the power system security. In allusion to the defect existing in the traditional method of power system static security analysis, this paper conducts the risk assessment of the power system static security from the angle of risk. This paper thoroughly discusses a real-time fault probability evaluation model of transmission line considering meteorological factors. It divides transmission line into five parts of electric insulator, wire, lightning arrester, tower and ground wire and monitors them online and establishes the quantitative model of each monitoring parameter respectively according to their specifications and actual operation situation. Then using the theory of unascertained rational numbers combining with fuzzy assessment method, this paper establishes a real-time and hierarchical fault probability assessment model of transmission line based on the on-line monitoring data, meanwhile it considers the current meteorological conditions and then sets up a real-time evaluation model of transmission line’s fault probability. This paper thoroughly discusses the probabilistic load flow which can be used in the static security risk assessment. By taking into account all kinds of uncertain factors existed in power system, this paper establishes the probabilistic model of the uncertain factors and then applies the Cornish-Fisher expansion based on the semi-invariant to calculate the III III probabilistic load flow. At last this paper