基于灰色综合评价的农业高科技投资项目风险评价研究.docVIP

基于灰色综合评价的农业高科技投资项 目风险评价研究 韩培培 温明振 李文 熊朗羽 侯静静 冀刚 辽宁大学商学院辽宁大学经济学院北京师范大学 珠海分校管理学院 摘要： 根据农业高科技投资项目的特点，采用层次分析法建立了风险指标评价体系， 首次运用多层次灰色综合评价法度量农业高科技投资项目的风险，并进行了算 例分析。结果表明:运用多层次灰色综合评价法，可以有效计算农业高科技投资 项目风险的综合评价值，据此分析项目的风险等级;运用该方法，可以分别计算 出准则层因素的风险值，对风险较高的因素进行监控及预防;技术、研发、管理 权重最高，是影响项目成败的关键;多层次灰色综合评价法是企业度量农业高科 技投资项目风险大小的科学工具。 关键词： 灰色综合评价;层次分析法;农业高科技投资项冃；投资风险;风险评价; 作者简介：韩培培（1989-），女，山东嘉祥人，博士研究生，研究方向为风险 管理。E-mail:748966900@qq. com. 作者简介：温明振（1966-），男，辽宁盖州人，博士，副教授，研究方向为农 业经济及战略管理。E-ma订:570810989@qq. com. 收稿日期：2017-07-10 基金：辽宁省财政科研基金资助项目（14B014） Research on Risk Evaluation of Agricultural High一tech Investment Projects Based on Gray Synthetic Evaluation HAN Peipei WEN Mingzhen LI Wen XIONG Langyu HOU Jingjing JI Gang College of Business, Liaoning University; College of Economics, Liaoning University; College of Management of Zhuhai Campus, Beijing Normal University; Abstract： According to the characteristics of agricultural high-tech investment projects, the risk index evaluation system was established by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) , the risk of agricultural high-tech investment projects was evaluated by the multi-level gray comprehensive evaluation method for the first time, and a practical example was studied. The resu Its showed that the comprehensive values of agri cultural high-tech investment projects risks could be effeetivcly calculated by the multi level gray synthetic comprehensive evaluation method and that the risk level of the project could be analyzed. By applying this method, the risk value of the criterion layer factors could be calculated separate!y, and the risk factors were monitored and prevented. The weight of technology, RD and management was the most important, which was the key to the success of the project. The multi-level gray synthetic comprehensive evaluation method was the scientific tool to measure the risk of agricultural high-tech investment projects. Keyword： gray synthctic evaluation; analytic hicrorchy process; agricultural high-tech invest