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未来10年持续看涨香港房地产(港股).pdf 165页

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 Global Research 17 April 2019 Initiation of Coverage Hong Kong Property Equities Only half-way through the property price upcycle Hong Kong Real Estate John Lam, CFA Property price upcycle for another decade; 5% upside for CCL by end-2019E Analyst After the decade-long upcycle in 2008-18, we expect the Hong Kong property price john-za.lam@ upcycle to continue for the next 10 years, driven by limited supply, rising population +852-2971 6358 inflow due to Greater Bay Area integration, and China's adoption of the common Mark Leung reporting standard (CRS). Our analysis of housing demand, based on demographics and Analyst non-local demand, suggests annual housing demand would stand at 60,000 units pa, mark.leung@ mainly supported by non-local demand, compared with the government's long-term +852-2971 8636 supply target of 45,000 units. As Hong Kong developers are trading at an average 40%

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