煤转油战略研究-产业经济学专业毕业论文.docxVIP

摘要 摘 要 石油一直是全球各国重要的战略资源，石油价格从 1972 年后波动比较大，2006 国际石油价格受各种因素的影响一路走高，达到创纪录的每桶 70.80 美元。石油的替 代品日益受到重视，煤转油又被提到日程上，但是国内外关于煤转油是否可行存在很 大的争议，主要是煤转油未来面临很多的不确定性因素，其次是从国家的角度看是否 应该利用煤炭代替石油。国内外的相关文献都是定性来分析，许多煤转油的可行性研 究报告大都是基于 NPV 来评估项目的价值，对于石油行业的波动性估计不足。 本文基于以上情况，首先研究了煤转油的历史、现状，在此基础上应用“五力” 分析模型，结合中国的的情景和石油产业的情景引入“政府规制”和“行业波动性”， 发展为“七力” 分析模型，针对我国煤转油项目进行了竞争力分析。分析结果表明 煤转油项目在短期内有一定的竞争力，但从中长期看存在极大的不确定性，技术的成 熟与否、国家的政策导向，国际油价、行业的波动性都是重要的影响因素。在企业的 竞争力分析中，采用动态 SWOT 分析。 针对煤转油项目存在较多不确定性，石油行业的波动性较大，传统分析方法已 不能评估该项目的价值，如何衡量该项目，本文章引入实物期权，通过设计软件，模 拟石油价格的波动来描述并比较了煤转油项目的营运价值和等待价值。 最后本文认为对煤转油项目的战略应该是加大技术研发的投入，把煤转油技术 作为战略储备。要解决我国的能源问题，中国只有更积极地参与全球石油开采勘探， 执行走出去战略，煤转油可以是石油战略储备的一个补充。 关键词：煤转油；“五力”分析模型；动态 SWOT 分析；实物期权；不确定性投资 Abstract Abstract Oil has been an important strategic resource, the price of which has fluctuated greatly since 1972 and has soared because of the influence of various factors in 2006 and reached a record 70.80＄ per barrel. The alternative of oil is catching more attention increasingly and the coal-oil conversion project is scheduled again. However, the feasibility of the project is still an open question in the world first because the project will face many uncertainties in the future and then from the perspective of a county whether coal should take over oil or not. The project is analyzed qualitatively in some related documents and is evaluated based on NPV in many feasibility study reports. In this article, first study the history and the current situation of the coal-oil conversion based on the condition mentioned above. And then two force- the government regulation and the fluctuation in the industry which are introduced through the combination of the environment of our country and the oil industry are added to the analysis model “five force” and get a new analysis model “seven force”, which is to analyze the competition of the coal-oil conversion project in our country. The result of the analysis demonstrates that the coal-oil conversion project is competitive in the short