震后交通需求预测的修正四阶段法.PDF

Vol21 　No 8 公 　路 　交 　通 　科 　技 2004 年 8 月 JOURNAL OF HIGHWAY AND TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 文章编号 : (2004) 震后交通需求预测的修正四阶段法 陈艳艳 , 史建港 (北京工业大学交通研究中心 , 北京 　100022) 摘要 : 将城市震后交通系统运行划分为两个阶段 : 震后应急阶段及震后恢复阶段 , 并根据地震环境下不同恢复阶段的 社会经济活动及交通系统特性对传统交通预测四阶段法 ———出行产生、出行分布、方式划分、交通分配的宏观模型进 行修正 , 讨论不同模型参数的变化趋势 , 建议参数的调整原则及方法 , 进而以修正四阶段法为基础进行震后交通需求 预测。该方法简便易行 , 预测结果可对城市交通系统防灾规划提供决策依据。 关键词 : 需求预测; 地震 ; 交通系统 ; 四阶段法 中图分类号: U49114 　　　　　　文献标识码 : A Revised Fourstage Method for Po stearthquake Traffic Demand Foreca st CHEN Yanyan , SHI Jiangang ( Transportation Research Center , Beijing University of Technology , Beijing　100022 , China) Abstract : In the paper , postearthquake traffic processing is divided into three periods for urban transportation system , that is emer gency period , restoration period and recovered periodDepending on the social economic activity and transportation character in different period , the traditional fourstage traffic demand estimation model , which includes traffic generation , traffic distribution , modal split and traffic assignment is advisedThe changing tendency of different parameters in the models is discussed and the parameter adjustment principle and method are suggestedThe advised fourstage method can be used to estimate the traffic distribution after earthquake and help the government make antidisaster plan Key words : Demand forecast ; Earthquake ; Transportation system ; Fourstage method