Cash Flow Estimation and Risk Analysis必看课件资料.ppt

Estimating cash flows: Relevant cash flows Working capital treatment Inflation Risk Analysis: Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis, and Simulation Analysis Cost: $200,000 + $10,000 shipping + $30,000 installation. Depreciable cost $240,000. Economic life = 4 years. Salvage value = $25,000. MACRS 3-year class. Annual unit sales = 1,250. Unit sales price = $200. Unit costs = $100. Net operating working capital (NOWC) = 12% of sales. Tax rate = 40%. Project cost of capital = 10%. Incremental Cash Flow for a Project Project’s incremental cash flow is: Corporate cash flow with the project Minus Corporate cash flow without the project. NO. We discount project cash flows with a cost of capital that is the rate of return required by all investors (not just debtholders or stockholders), and so we should discount the total amount of cash flow available to all investors. They are part of the costs of capital. If we subtracted them from cash flows, we would be double counting capital costs. NO. This is a sunk cost. Focus on incremental investment and operating cash flows. Yes. Accepting the project means we will not receive the $25,000. This is an opportunity cost and it should be charged to the project. A.T. opportunity cost = $25,000 (1 - T) = $15,000 annual cost. Yes. The effects on the other projects’ CFs are “externalities”. Net CF loss per year on other lines would be a cost to this project. Externalities will be positive if new projects are complements to existing assets, negative if substitutes. Annual Sales and Costs Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Units 1250 1250 1250 1250 Unit price $200 $206 $212.18 $218.55 Unit cost $100 $103 $106.09 $109.27 Sales $250,000 $257,500 $265,225 $273,188 Costs $125,000 $128,750 $132,613 $136,588 Why is it important to include inflation when estimating cash flows? Nominal r > real r. The cost of capital, r, includes a premium for inflation. Nominal CF > real CF. This is because nominal cash flows incorporate inflation. If