麦格理-全球-外汇策略-全球外汇展望_等待新的驱动因素——第四季度英国脱欧_2020年美国大选-2019.9.18-44页_1mb.pdf

用户上传 更多免费报告请查看研报客 18 September 2019 Global FX AND RATES This publication has been prepared by Sales and Trading personnel at Macquarie and is not a product of the Macquarie Research Department. Global FX Outlook: Awaiting New Drivers Brexit in Q4, US Elections in 2020 Global Risk Hasn’t Yet Dissipated. The global risks that helped the USD see a supportive bid in Q3 have not fully dissipated yet, and probably won’t dissipate fully before the end of the year. Specifically, the US-China trade war and, increasingly, the shift in the risk-focus to ‘Brexit’, warrants a still-cautious attitude toward most of the USD’s counterparts over the next few months. Indeed, as risk managers approach year-end and the need to lock in a ‘mark’, hedging activity may ensue if these two issues are unresolved, pressuring the USD upward. The USD/CNY Approaches a “Levelling Off”. The PBoC is working to dampen FX volatility by using the fix and USD sales, especially with the 70th anniversary of the founding of the PRC in October. CNY may still feel some pressure in Q4 as t