瑞信-全球-股票策略-全球股市策略：什么时候是低点，V有多大？-2020.3.13-32页.pdf

13 March 2020 Equity Research Global Global Equity Strategy When is the low, and how big is the V? Investment Strategy | Strategy We believe equity markets will be significantly above current levels by year-end, but we have not seen all the conditions required for a trough. Of the factors we are monitoring, we have yet to Research Analysts see the following three : Andrew Garthwaite A peak in daily infection rates (in the SARS crisis, markets troughed a week later); 44 20 7883 6477 A trough in PMIs (we think this could happen in May). Global PMIs are already consistent andrew.garthwaite@ with 1% global GDP growth (half of our house view), but we could see PMIs falling to 40- Robert Griffiths 45 in Europe and the US; 44 20 7883 8885 Clear-cut fiscal easing in the US, although this is starting elsewhere (including Europe today). robert.griffiths@ These are the factors we have seen so far that are consistent with a market trough: Nicolas Wylenzek 44 20 7883 6480 Tactical indicators at their most depressed levels on record (having been at a three-year high). nicolas.wylenzek@ Clear-cut monetary response and very loose monetary conditions (and expanding central Mengyuan Yuan bank balance sheets); 44 20 7888 0368 We have already seen the ‘normal’ market correction (15%) that we would expect when mengyuan.yuan@ the oil price colla