新冠疫情对全球旅游业造成影 响评估.docxVIP

Table of Contents Acknowledgements 4 6 Introduction 6 7 10 1 1 12 How the COVID-19 crisis hits tourism Tourism in the CGE model GTAP Scenarios Results 7 10 1 1 12 17References 19 17  Implications and conclusions Acknowledgements This paper has been written by Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, Ralf Peters and David Vanzetti under the overall guidance of Pamela Coke Hamilton, Director, Division on International Trade and Commodities, UNCTAD. This paper has benefited from the contributions of: Lien Huong Do, from the Australian National University; Sumathi Chakravarthy, from Infinite Sum Modelling LLC, Seattle; and Jeanelle Clarke, Graham Mott, Alessandro Nicita, Tansug Ok, Carlos Razo, Claudia Roethlisberger, and Simonetta Zarrilli Traeger from UNCTAD. Graphic design and desktop publishing were done by Nadege Hadjemian. TABLE OF CONTENT Introduction By June 2020, COVID-19 infected over 10 million people and caused the deaths of over 500,000 worldwide (WHO1). Globally, the spread shows no sign of abating. Although daily cases in Europe and Western Pacific are declining, they are increasing in the Americas, South East Asia and Africa. In response, most countries have closed their borders to visitors and tourists. The UN World Tourism Organization2 reported during the second quarter of 2020 for the first time ever that 100 per cent of global destinations introduced travel restrictions. As a result, international tourism has been almost totally suspended, and domestic tourism curtailed by lockdown conditions imposed in many countries. Although some destinations have started slowly to open up, many are afraid of international travel or cannot afford it due to the economic crisis. Tourism is a critical sector of the international economy. In 2019, the tourism sector accounted for 29 per cent of the world’s services exports and about 300 million jobs globally.3 It is an important source of income and employment for developed an