限制竞争对5G网络设备的经济影 响（英）.docx

TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary 2 The 5G opportunity 6 5G rollout in Europe 7 The impact of coronavirus on 5G rollout 8 The economic benefits of 5G 9 How the 5G infrastructure market works 11 Who are the key players in the European market? 11 How we assess the impact of restricting 5G competition 13 What happens if Huawei is restricted from competing? 13 Our three-stage modelling approach 14 Transmission mechanism of competition restrictions 15 Accounting for uncertainty 16 The economic impact of restricting 5G infrastructure competition in Europe 18 Total impact of restricting competition across Europe 18 Impact of restricting competition in each country 19 County-by-country analysis 20–80 Appendix 1: Glossary of terms 82 Appendix 2: Modelling approach and methodology 84 Appendix 3: The Global Economic Model 93 Appendix 4: Full results 96 1 Restricting competition in 5G network equipment throughout Europe EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The next generation of mobile technology, 5G, offers enormous opportunities for countries who facilitate its widespread provision. During the global coronavirus crisis, telecoms networks have kept vital health, education and emergency services online, helped many businesses to smoothly shift to remote-working patterns and allowed friends and family to stay connected. As social distancing has become the norm (in the short run, at least), digital infrastructure has played an ever-more important role in keeping the wheels of the economy turning. Furthermore, the faster connection speeds achieved using the 5G network, and the potential new-use cases for this technology, will be crucial in boosting productivity levels as countries seek to bounce back from financial collapse. Moreover, the act of 5G infrastructure building can provide a stimulus for recovery in the short term. However, the recession associated with the coronavirus pandemic is set to delay its rollout, endangering the