美国大学生数学建模竞赛美赛--论文-.docVIP

Team # 40906 Page 19 of 22 4.2 Error Analysis of the Model ? During the crash,the plane will shift with the force of the monsoon and the current.But in practice, the monsoon and the current is different from time to time.However, we assume that the directs of the monsoon and the current are constant in the model.Besides, we ignore the in?uence of the attitude of the plane. So there must be errors in the trajectory of the plane calculating. ? The model bases on the assumption that the plane crashes immediately the last signal sent.But the plane sends signals every ?ve minutes.So the point where the plane crashes is possibly not the point the last signal sent.This will also leads errors in the model. 5 Conclusion We take the MH370 for example for different crash without any signal in this paper, and build a dynamic model of the plane. Follow the above parts, we calculate the trajectory of the plane and the ideal fall area. Then in the fall area, we calculate plane position probability density function based on central limit theory and independence principle. We use Bayesian search in the whole probable area, and in each small area we use spiral search. Making use of all kinds of electronic devices and sensors to search the plane, it improves the search ef?ciency. 6 Strengths and Weaknesses Like any model,the one present above has its strengths and weaknesses. Some of the major points are presented below. 6.1 Strengths ? Full consideration to the plane movement in?uence on monsoon and ocean current, we analyze the plane force to be more perfect, and improve the accuracy of the model greatly. ? Before the crash, the study of ?ight condition determined the search scope area, and avoided blindsearching. It can also improve the search ef?ciency. ? We ignore thepossibility of plane disintegration and the in?uence of the plane crashedgesture, ignoring secondary factors in order to simpli?ed mathematical model. ? We establish themodel and give full consideration to the diff