联合石化期货交易巨亏案例研究.pdf

摘 要 众所周知，期货市场最为重要的两个作用，一个是对期货商品有价格发现的功能， 另一个是对企业有规避风险发生的作用，在有关期货交易的众多策略中，套期保值交 易是最为常见的一种期货交易策略，因为，对于企业而言，想要最大限度躲避商品价 格波动带来的风险，结合企业本身的现货库存情况，在期货市场上进行合理的套期保 值操作，无疑是避免此种风险发生的最为有效的操作手段。因此，本文特以最近发生 的中石化全资子公司——联合石化期货交易巨亏事件作为分析对象，并围绕此事件展 开详细的分析讨论，通过使用因果分析法、对比分析法等方法，对联合石化事件从官 方公告、交易策略和财务数据三个角度进行深度分析，分别站在企业外部视角和企业 内部视角剖析其发生的原因，以挖掘出企业在进行期货套期保值交易时所面临的风险 点，并依此给予切实有效的合理化建议。本文尤其以中石化为例设计出一套集团企业 期货持仓与现货存量匹配机制，以供与中石化公司结构相似且参与期货套期保值业务 的集团企业参考。 关键字：石油期货 套期保值 风险分析 中石化 I ABSTACT Aswe allknow,thetwomost important rolesofthe futuresmarket,one isthe function ofprice discovery of futurescommodities,andthe other isfor the enterprisesto avoidrisks. Among many strategies related to futures trading, hedging transactions are the most common futures trading strategy. For enterprises, wanting to avoid the risks caused by fluctuations in commodity prices to the greatest extent, and combining the companys own spot inventory situation, a reasonable hedging operation in the futures market is undoubtedly the most effective operation for avoiding such risks. Therefore, this article takes the recently occurred Sinopecs wholly-owned subsidiary, China International United Petroleum Chemicals Company Limited Futures Trading Incident as the object of analysis,and conductsdetailed analysisand discussion aroundthisevent.Byusingmethods such as causality analysis and comparative analysis,the petrochemical incident is analyzed in depth from three perspectives: official announcements, trading strategies, and financial data. The reasons for the occurrence were analyzed from the external and internal perspectives of the company to dig out the risks faced by the company when conducting futures hedging transactions points, and give practical and effective rationalization recommendations. This article takes Sinopec as