world agricultural production, usda 202008 世界农业生产2020年8月 美国USDA期刊.pdf

United States Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Foreign Agricultural Service Production Circular Series WAP 8-20 August 2020 China Rice: Unseasonal Excessive Rainfall and Flooding Decrease Crop Prospects USDA forecasts China’s 2020/21 milled rice production at 147 million metric tons (mmt), down 1 percent from last month but up slightly from last year, and down 1 percent from the 5-year average. Area is forecast at 29.8 million hectares (mha), down 0.4 mha or 1 percent from last month and down 2 percent from the 5-year average. Yield is forecast at 7.05 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha), unchanged from last month, but down slightly from last year and up 1 percent from the 5- year average of 6.95 mt/ha. Recent unseasonably excessive rainfall and flooding in large parts of the lower Yangtze Valley have stoked fears of damage to the developing rice crop, prompting to lower China milled rice production by 2.0 mmt or 1 percent. Precipitation since early July has increased and persisted to more than 200 millimeters above normal for this time of the year across the southern Yangtze Valley, a core rice production area. Satellite data indicates severe flooding in the southern provinces of Yangtze Valley including Jiangsu, Anhui and Hubei. These provinces account for approximately 56.0 mmt, or 39 percent of total China rice. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board China has three rice plantings. The single rice crop, which accounts for 66 percent of total rice production, is planted in April to June; early-double rice (16 percent) is planted in April to May; and late-double rice (18 percent) is planted in July to August. Concerns about the